WEBVTT 00:00:02.000 --> 00:00:13.000 Yeah. 00:00:13.000 --> 00:00:43.000 Nice to see you in the same part of the Us. 00:01:19.000 --> 00:01:21.000 Yeah. 00:01:21.000 --> 00:01:51.000 And that's what that's the only reason I know where it is. 00:02:36.000 --> 00:02:53.000 I'll be signed across. We have sort of everybody in. 00:02:53.000 --> 00:03:21.000 Material. 00:03:21.000 --> 00:03:30.000 Thank everyone for showing up. Today. We have a great pleasure of having Christina Cohen. 00:03:30.000 --> 00:03:41.000 Visit us as our seminar. Christina received her vs. From the University of New Hampshire, and her Phd. From the University of Maryland. 00:03:41.000 --> 00:03:50.000 And she joined Caltech as a post act in 1996, and now works there as a research scientist. 00:03:50.000 --> 00:04:04.000 Her research is mainly focusing some energetic particles in space. She's done work mostly, probably on the solar energetic system. Probably. 00:04:04.000 --> 00:04:08.000 And it's really both in many different environments. 00:04:08.000 --> 00:04:21.000 Just impressive experience in mission development. She is the deputy for the low energy telescope on stereo. She's a pi for the solar isotopeer and cosmic ray isotope. 00:04:21.000 --> 00:04:23.000 Spectrometer on ace. 00:04:23.000 --> 00:04:40.000 She's a deputy. I for the Integrated Science Investigator Investigation suite on probe on sunrise and Imap. And she was a team member on the Galileo. Heavy iron color. 00:04:40.000 --> 00:04:50.000 She also hosts a world record. On serving in a number of meetings with me. 00:04:50.000 --> 00:04:56.000 So she was co-chair of the space, weather, science and Applications panel of the Decadal Survey. 00:04:56.000 --> 00:05:01.000 She with me 00:05:01.000 --> 00:05:14.000 The National Academies Committee for space weather operations and Research infrastructure workshop. She was chair of the Lws Architecture Committee, she was a member of the National Academies. 00:05:14.000 --> 00:05:18.000 Committee on Storage Space, overlapping with me. 00:05:18.000 --> 00:05:34.000 She has done some things also on her own. She is the Dean of NASA Summer School, and served as a du President, 2017 22. 00:05:34.000 --> 00:05:39.000 And there's a whole host of other things, but these are the most important. 00:05:39.000 --> 00:05:52.000 She's been awarded up by NASA for her work on Ulysses, when ace and our pro missions, and she was selected fellow last that year. 00:05:52.000 --> 00:06:02.000 And so today we'll hear her presentation, solar and energy solar, energetic particles as space, weather. 00:06:02.000 --> 00:06:06.000 Thank you. Tuna. Thank you. 00:06:06.000 --> 00:06:14.000 Alright. So this so thank you for that nice introduction. For those of you that I had lunch with. This is where you. 00:06:14.000 --> 00:06:18.000 I said I should have said no a little bit more often. In terms of those things. 00:06:18.000 --> 00:06:40.000 But it gave me a chance to work with some really great people, including to you. So hopefully, this presentation has a little bit for everybody in here. Both for the people that are not familiar with solar, energetic particles or space, whether and also some people that are very familiar with it at the end will be talking about some new observations from Parker Solipro. 00:06:40.000 --> 00:06:50.000 Okay? So for those of you that aren't familiar with space weather. Basically, it's sort of an umbrella term that covers a lot of things, including 00:06:50.000 --> 00:06:52.000 Let's see if we can use this flares. 00:06:52.000 --> 00:07:15.000 Chronom ejections which you call Cms. So energetic particles. Of course, that's what I'm mostly focused on, and for those of you that know geomagnetic storms, which is basically what happens. What you're seeing here is a cartoon of Cme hitting the magnetosphere of the earth, and you can see that it distorts the magnetic field surrounding the earth, and you can get reconnection here which causes the. 00:07:15.000 --> 00:07:40.000 Beautiful aurora they come in, which is not something that I study at all. But basically, there's a lot of aspects of space weather that are not so beautiful like the aurora. And you know, in particular, there's radiation. So that's energetic particles hitting things. And that affects spacecraft that we have up in space astronauts that are there. It can actually affect airlines if they're going over the poles. And so they're not protected by. 00:07:40.000 --> 00:07:43.000 The magnetic field. 00:07:43.000 --> 00:07:52.000 Various different aspects, like the X-rays hit the ionosphere. Really. Change the level ionization in there, and that can affect the radio communications and the GPS. 00:07:52.000 --> 00:07:55.000 That we rely on to get us from. 00:07:55.000 --> 00:07:59.000 The hotel to this room, for instance, for me. 00:07:59.000 --> 00:08:09.000 And of course there can be geomagnetic effects. You distort that magnetic field that runs currents through the earth, and that can cause all kinds of weird things that can induce 00:08:09.000 --> 00:08:12.000 Conduce currents in 00:08:12.000 --> 00:08:20.000 Magnetic field lines, sorry in electric field lines, electric lines inducing a current in there which can actually cause. 00:08:20.000 --> 00:08:26.000 Overloads on transformers which has been known to happen. It can also, oddly enough. 00:08:26.000 --> 00:08:30.000 Oil going through pipelines? It creates. 00:08:30.000 --> 00:08:34.000 A bunch of problems with the electricity and those, and can cause. 00:08:34.000 --> 00:08:41.000 Transmission problems for the oil. Surprisingly enough. And of course, communication. So 00:08:41.000 --> 00:09:03.000 I'm gonna go through this kind of fast. But this is just sort of real life examples. I realized when I was looking at these are all really dated, but they're all still relevant. So the biggest one that we always tried out is this big Geo magnetic storm that happened in March, 1989, where Hydro Quebec lost power. So this entire section of Quebec up here went out of power for 9 h, and for those of you that have lived. 00:09:03.000 --> 00:09:16.000 Up in the northeast know that March is not a great time to be up in Upper Quebec for no power for 9 h. And basically, the problem is is that it it, the surge in the magnet in the electric field lines. 00:09:16.000 --> 00:09:39.000 And electric lines causes damage to the transformers. And this is an example of what actually happened in this event, where you sort of melted these coils, and these are not something that you can just go down to home depot and buy a new one and swap it in. And then you're all good, these things. We don't have a lot of spares, and the ones that we do. Take a while to get to where we need to put them, hooked them up, and so forth. And so this is just a map of what happened. This big. 00:09:39.000 --> 00:10:03.000 Area here was completely without power. These other colors are showing the grids that are all interconnected, and the little symbol showed you where there's either tripping of equipment or equipment damage. And then, of course, some blackouts as well. And so this was actually a really big event, and it was sort of the beginning of sort of telling people that look space weather can actually cause damage here on Earth that we need to worry about. 00:10:03.000 --> 00:10:22.000 And there was an estimation that was done a couple of decades ago that said, You know what? When you have these blackouts, it's not just like everybody loses power, and they've got to throw out all the food that was in their refrigerator, and they're really annoyed with you. But when you lose power for a really long time period which can happen. If you've got to replace a bunch of transformers, you can lose power for months. 00:10:22.000 --> 00:10:25.000 And then you're talking about trying to get. 00:10:25.000 --> 00:10:32.000 Food from one place to another. You're trying to get machinery from places you've got places that no longer can 00:10:32.000 --> 00:10:56.000 You can't communicate with places that you need to, so you can't move shipping around and all these things, and made an estimate that you could cost the Us 4 billion dollars a day if you have one of these massive events. So that got the attention of of the government. And so they went. Huh! That seems like a lot. And so they did a bunch of studies. And they basically recognized space weather as a threat. And they actually came out with this. 00:10:56.000 --> 00:11:17.000 Space weather strategy and action plan. And then eventually, this actually morphed into what's called the pro swift act, which was actually that said, okay, these agencies need to be in charge of these kind of things because we really need to understand this. So we can predict it so that we can take action to mitigate the effects. 00:11:17.000 --> 00:11:21.000 And here are just a few things that I'm gonna talk about in terms of 00:11:21.000 --> 00:11:25.000 Energetic particle impacts. So on spacecraft. 00:11:25.000 --> 00:11:33.000 You can. There's a bunch of different things that can happen. You can just lose the data because you lost con communication with your satellite. You can get. 00:11:33.000 --> 00:11:37.000 Funny signals like you have these energetic particles that hit the 00:11:37.000 --> 00:11:59.000 The computer in the spacecraft, basically. And they can cause false alarms. They can cause just like noise. They can actually mimic telemetry so signals and shut your spacecraft down. These phantoms have been known to happen. They can also just degrade your sensors. Either the solar panels or the actual instrumentation. They can freeze up your whole instrument, and they can stop. 00:11:59.000 --> 00:12:01.000 Talking, and it could 00:12:01.000 --> 00:12:07.000 Sometimes you can. We now try to program them to recover themselves. 00:12:07.000 --> 00:12:15.000 But we didn't always have that as an option. You can also just lose the whole mission. It can just go get so damaged that you can't really recover it. 00:12:15.000 --> 00:12:18.000 And so this was another thing that was noticed. 00:12:18.000 --> 00:12:21.000 Was that we had the spacecraft that are. 00:12:21.000 --> 00:12:37.000 Sort of right on the edge of the atmosphere, and it turns out that when you have this big storm, so if you have X-rays, and also geomagnetic effects that inflate the atmosphere. You basically increase the drag on the spacecraft. And it was found that the number of. 00:12:37.000 --> 00:12:46.000 Spacecraft that reentered the atmosphere was heavily correlated. You can see the number as a function of time in the blue is heavily correlated with the sunspots. 00:12:46.000 --> 00:13:04.000 On the on the sun, and the sun is like a nice, easy proxy that we use for space weather. In the sense that if there's more spots on the sun you're more likely to have a solar activity which generates the space weather. So you can think of these solar maximum, you have more activity, and so more solar storms. 00:13:04.000 --> 00:13:10.000 Or do you make storms? And then more spacecraft actually entering the atmosphere. 00:13:10.000 --> 00:13:12.000 So here's a couple other specifics. 00:13:12.000 --> 00:13:22.000 This was a big geomagnetic storm and solar storm. So the particles all the fuzz that you're seeing here. These are solar, energetic particles that are hitting the detector and causing all this noise. 00:13:22.000 --> 00:13:31.000 And so there was a big flare that went off. You can see this. I'll talk about this more. This is a corona mass ejection. That's this big expansion of plasma coming from the sun. 00:13:31.000 --> 00:13:51.000 And basically, these were effects. Odyssey, the Orbiter spacecraft, went into space mode. It had a memory error that was eventually corrected several. A couple of days later the Marie instrument had a temperature red alarm that actually had it powered off, and they were never actually able to power it back on. So it was actually completely lost. 00:13:51.000 --> 00:14:12.000 The twins Mars Rover, explorer Rovers were enrich to Mars, and both went into sort of a sun idle mode. Luckily they recovered, and then there were astronauts on the International Space Station. They had to go into a special area of the space station to be protected from radiation course. They ended up being 5. 00:14:12.000 --> 00:14:17.000 But this one was kind of interesting. Is the Faa issued the first, st ever alert on radiation doses. 00:14:17.000 --> 00:14:31.000 For airlines that were flying above 25,000 feet. So particularly if you're over the polls, you can get extra radiation that you're not counting on. And there was a power system failure also in Sweden. 00:14:31.000 --> 00:14:40.000 This was all has to be my favorite one. In April 2010, there was a communications. It was TV satellite that 00:14:40.000 --> 00:14:45.000 That suddenly. So it was a galaxy 15 satellite on an rocket. 00:14:45.000 --> 00:14:48.000 Went up and the communication stopped responding. 00:14:48.000 --> 00:14:53.000 Due to this energetic, particle, energetic particle. 00:14:53.000 --> 00:14:59.000 And they started calling it zombie set, and it was just drifting through all these orbits. 00:14:59.000 --> 00:15:07.000 Of other satellites, including telecommunication, satellites and Tvs that were broadcasting various different. 00:15:07.000 --> 00:15:24.000 Television shows, and in particular, I was talking to an 8th grade class at the time that this was happening, and their biggest concern was that this zombie sat was going to drift in the way of a telecommunications satellite that was going to be broadcasting the last episode of loss. 00:15:24.000 --> 00:15:31.000 And they were worried that that was gonna interfere with it. But it turned out that they recovered in time. So lost and get lost. Okay. 00:15:31.000 --> 00:15:55.000 Astronauts. Of course there's all everybody knows. Radiation's bad and turns out spaces. Don't provide a lot of protection. So if you are out on Eva. That's a big problem. You don't want to be out there when there's in the solar events happening. If you have warning, you can either not do that, Eva, or you can go back inside, and you can go into a sheltered area. So that's another reason why we'd like to. 00:15:55.000 --> 00:16:04.000 Know that these are coming transpolar plates. I've mentioned these a couple of times where you're going from one continent to the other. Sometimes the shortest path is over, the pole. 00:16:04.000 --> 00:16:06.000 Because of the way the magnetic field is structured. 00:16:06.000 --> 00:16:27.000 You're less protected up here from energetic particles. Now the planes can be rerouted if they know this is happening, but they don't like to do that, because that cost them a lot of money, because it requires more fuel, and of course it causes delays and all kinds of things. So they really wanna know if this is happening, but only wanna do it. If we're sure that it's gonna happen. 00:16:27.000 --> 00:16:52.000 Okay. So they're all also is the fact that even though we think Earth is very special because we're all here, it turns out that space weather happens everywhere, and it affects all different planets, including Mars. And so we've had instruments on Mars for a long time that can be affected by space weather. And of course, some people wanna put people on Mars eventually, and that will also be another issue. So not only should we have to. 00:16:52.000 --> 00:16:55.000 Want to 00:16:55.000 --> 00:17:03.000 Predict space weather at Earth. We want to predict it sort of everywhere, including, say, Mars, or any other place where we might have a space to have it. 00:17:03.000 --> 00:17:06.000 Asset. Okay, so. 00:17:06.000 --> 00:17:16.000 Seps the science of sc, it's not all about space weather. There's also science for science. One thing is, this is one of the ways we study the active. 00:17:16.000 --> 00:17:22.000 Activity of our sun, which is our closest, and stars are cool. 00:17:22.000 --> 00:17:46.000 And so we want to understand how this is behaving, and that will tell us more about other stars in our galaxy and beyond the acceleration of energetic particles. That acceleration is not particular to what's happening on the sun or in that vicinity. This is an image of a coronal mass ejection. So this is a big explosion on the sun that can drive a shock. 00:17:46.000 --> 00:17:55.000 In front of it, just like, if you have a boat going through water, you can have a bow shock, and that shock can accelerate particles. Well, that happens not only at the sun, but it also happens. 00:17:55.000 --> 00:18:09.000 At the edge of our heliosphere. So there's this bow shock as our heliosphere is moving through the interplanetary mid. Sorry the interstellar medium. It also happens at supernovas, and of course it happens in front of our own earth bell shock. There. 00:18:09.000 --> 00:18:26.000 So if we understand the acceleration here, we can understand the acceleration happening lots of other places. Another way of accelerating seps is through magnetic reconnection where you basically have opposite directed magnetic fields, they interact, they reconnect. 00:18:26.000 --> 00:18:51.000 Here, you get an X point. And basically it sort of cuts those 2 magnetic fields. And you end up with these loops that are going this way, and you can accelerate particles there. And as you know that, you know, we get acceleration here to cause the auroras, we get this reconnection here. This is solar images at different wavelengths. You can see reconnection happening here. That's accelerating particles of the sun. We also see Aurora Jupiter, which is presumably. 00:18:51.000 --> 00:18:58.000 Presume they also being accelerated in similar ways. So reconnection itself also happens in various places. 00:18:58.000 --> 00:19:06.000 Okay, so let's back up a little bit and just talk about what solar particles are. Well, the name is pretty descriptive. So their solar meaning. They're coming from the sun. 00:19:06.000 --> 00:19:13.000 They're energetic, which means in our terms, they're a few 100 kb. Per nucleon to. 00:19:13.000 --> 00:19:21.000 Hundreds or even thousands Kv pinnucleons for Mev per nucleon so they're very many times. 00:19:21.000 --> 00:19:26.000 More energetic than the solar wind, which is usually at about one k. 00:19:26.000 --> 00:19:31.000 They're particles. They're mostly ions and electrons. The ions are mostly protons. 00:19:31.000 --> 00:19:43.000 The next most abundant one is helium plus 2, so we call them alpha particles sometimes. But there's also heavy ions. So there's carbon, oxygen, nitrogen, neon magnesium. All those guys all the way up. 00:19:43.000 --> 00:19:47.000 Past zinc to the ultra heavy, and so. 00:19:47.000 --> 00:19:52.000 We want to measure all of those and see how they're all accelerated. 00:19:52.000 --> 00:19:56.000 And the way we do that is sort of 2 different ways. The way that's been done. 00:19:56.000 --> 00:20:07.000 For the longest amount of time is neutron is on the ground on Earth. So basically, what they're looking at is these energetic particles hit the atmosphere of the earth. They create secondary particles. 00:20:07.000 --> 00:20:14.000 Amongst those is neutrons, which are then detected by neutron. They see an increase in that particle rate. 00:20:14.000 --> 00:20:24.000 Most recently is space instrumentation. So this is an example of the data that we've gotten from one particular space. 00:20:24.000 --> 00:20:36.000 Spacecraft. This is a series of different instruments that basically have made enough measurements to cover all the way from what's the solar wind? So we're having intensities or number of particles here as a function of energy. 00:20:36.000 --> 00:21:01.000 You've got solar wind over here so slow and fast solar wind, and then it goes into what we call the super thermal tail. And then this part is the energetic particles all the way until you reach 3rd of the galactic cosmic ray particles intensities that's coming from outside our heliosphere, and this section in here. This is a integration over 3 years. This section is sort of built up of all these different transient. 00:21:01.000 --> 00:21:04.000 Scp, events, 00:21:04.000 --> 00:21:12.000 And they can be different sizes and and different characteristics which we'll go into in just a minute. 00:21:12.000 --> 00:21:15.000 Ctrs are. 00:21:15.000 --> 00:21:30.000 Looking flat in that spectrum. Where does that actually like roll over and begin to? Okay? So on this section of Jcr's, it's. And so you have to look at the scale here. We're going 10 to the 18th to 10 to the minus 4, right? So many orders of magnitude. 00:21:30.000 --> 00:21:41.000 Gcrs in this energy range being about 100 Mev per nucleon are a E to the plus one. So they're pretty. They look really flat on this. But they're actually a. 00:21:41.000 --> 00:21:49.000 You know, plus one, and they go up, and then they peak out here at Gev. Or something, and then they go back down. 00:21:49.000 --> 00:21:57.000 That's beyond my energy knowledge range. I just put that there and subtract them out. And then look at what's left. 00:21:57.000 --> 00:22:07.000 Yeah. The reason why it bends over is because of its transmission through the heliosphere. Once. So it bends over. 00:22:07.000 --> 00:22:09.000 Okay, so. 00:22:09.000 --> 00:22:27.000 As I alluded to a couple of times are associated with solar flares. That's where you often get the reconnection and we can measure those solar flares. So this was a really nice imagery that we do of solar flares. And it's not playing the second time. But anyway, there we go. 00:22:27.000 --> 00:22:40.000 But we also measured them through just detecting the X-rays. And so we have a bunch of instruments we've had for a long time called, and they just measured the X-ray output of the sun. And you can see these big spikes. Those are solar flares. 00:22:40.000 --> 00:22:49.000 And they're also associated with corona massions. And we measure these by using what's called the corona graph, where we basically. 00:22:49.000 --> 00:22:53.000 Have an instrument, that is, you can see this here. It's blocking. 00:22:53.000 --> 00:23:07.000 The surface of the sun, so that the detector doesn't get overwhelmed by how bright that is, and it's looking at everything. The corona outside it, which is much fainter. And what you see sometimes is these big exclusions of material. You can see them coming out. 00:23:07.000 --> 00:23:17.000 And then you'll see that where you have a really fast one coming out. And then all this sort of snow that hits the that's all. The energetic particles hitting the detector and causing all the noise. 00:23:17.000 --> 00:23:29.000 So they're associated with corona ejections. They're also associated with radio burst. So we get radio from the electrons that are accelerated. So this is called a type. 3 radio burst. 00:23:29.000 --> 00:23:33.000 And it's primarily so associated with flares. 00:23:33.000 --> 00:23:40.000 This thing here is called a type. 2 radio burst. We're very clever with our names here, ones and twos and threes. 00:23:40.000 --> 00:23:55.000 And this is generally associated with the Cme shock. Okay, so these are signatures that we look at. And we analyze these kind of things to try and give us clues as to what the conditions are, that the energetic particles are accelerated in. 00:23:55.000 --> 00:24:18.000 Okay. So for space weather, we're mostly interested in these big events. And so these big events are primarily created through shock acceleration. So you have a Cme, it's going very fast, going faster than the ambient solar wind in front of it. And so there it creates a shock wave ahead of it. So that's the cartoon here. These are the magnetic field lines coming from the sun. And then these little spirals are basically. 00:24:18.000 --> 00:24:26.000 Energetic particles that are leaving the shock. And the way those you can think of it is this is sort of a cartoon is that you have. 00:24:26.000 --> 00:24:39.000 Irregularities in the magnetic field that are scattering the particles back and forth across this shock plane. And basically the stuff behind the shock is moving faster than the stuff in front of the shock, and so effectively you have. 00:24:39.000 --> 00:25:03.000 To scattering centers that are getting closer and closer, and if you've ever played like ping pong or something, and you get the ping Pong paddles closer and closer. The ball goes, faster and faster between them. That's essentially what's happening here. So the particle goes energy as it bounces back and forth until it finally has enough energy that escapes the whole system, and then it sort of follows the field lines and comes out and is measured. But as energetic particles. 00:25:03.000 --> 00:25:21.000 So the key thing here is that shocks are really big, and they can accelerate all along that surface of the shock. So you can create energetic particles over a very wide range, even though this Cme. May have erupted from a fairly small space on the sun, relatively. 00:25:21.000 --> 00:25:36.000 Okay. So this is sort of how it goes is we have the sun, and we measure the magnetic fields of the sun. So what you're seeing is what we call active regions. These are magnetic fields, positive and negative. In these areas there are sources of very strong magnetic fields. 00:25:36.000 --> 00:25:46.000 And if that magnetic field gets tangled up enough that you get reconnection, you can get a flare which we observe in various different wavelengths, and that itself. 00:25:46.000 --> 00:25:54.000 We can measure. See like this, as I showed before, this is the X-ray output of the sun goes up, comes down, and that can actually. 00:25:54.000 --> 00:26:09.000 Solar, energetic particle which we can also measure on this particular spacecraft goes measures, protons, and you can see protons as several different energies. But sometimes you get that, and that's what you get. Basically nothing. There's no energy particles that come out. 00:26:09.000 --> 00:26:17.000 And sometimes you have this flare that goes off, and it actually creates a chronom, and we can see that come out. 00:26:17.000 --> 00:26:19.000 In these imagery like that. 00:26:19.000 --> 00:26:25.000 And sometimes that Corona Massion is going fast enough, that it drives a shock. 00:26:25.000 --> 00:26:28.000 And that shock can create energetic particles. 00:26:28.000 --> 00:26:35.000 Except when it doesn't. Sometimes it doesn't create. And so the key thing is that. 00:26:35.000 --> 00:26:41.000 We want to know when this is gonna create this, and when this. 00:26:41.000 --> 00:26:50.000 Isn't gonna create that. And we wanna predict that. And the problem is, there's multiple paths to get there. And each one of these arrows. 00:26:50.000 --> 00:26:55.000 Sometimes happens sometimes doesn't happen. And so that's why it's really hard to predict. 00:26:55.000 --> 00:27:08.000 The other reasons. That it's really hard is, even if you could say whether there's a energetic particle event going to happen. Not all sap events are created equal. And I'm going to show you several examples. They basically vary with. 00:27:08.000 --> 00:27:25.000 Pretty much everything, so they vary with time. So here is the intensity, the number of particles as a function of time. This is for a series of events that happened in October, that same event where we had all the space weather problems. And you can see up here. These are all these X-ray flares that went along. 00:27:25.000 --> 00:27:34.000 I think there's something like 8 there. These lines here are when interplanetary shocks were detected, so their Cme's that are going off. 00:27:34.000 --> 00:27:40.000 These colored lines are different energies of particles, and so you can see at the highest. Here you have. 00:27:40.000 --> 00:27:47.000 And one nice event, and another event, and another event, and you can see that, for instance, this event is pretty big. 00:27:47.000 --> 00:28:08.000 But at lower energy. Sometimes these small events don't show up at all, and sometimes they become really big, right when the shock goes by. So the time profile depends on what energy you're looking at, and it depends on the conditions of the events. So you can just see from here that all 5 of these events that are labeled down here are very different, depending on what energies you're looking at. 00:28:08.000 --> 00:28:11.000 And how long they last can be very different. 00:28:11.000 --> 00:28:17.000 How fast they rise. I mean, it's what we call the onset time. So how fast you go from 0 to 60. 00:28:17.000 --> 00:28:41.000 Depends on the events and the conditions. So this is another example. These are some of the biggest events we've seen. There was this one particular event in 2,005 in January that just shot up really, really fast. And so these particles arrived at one au within half an hour, whereas most of these other big events took hours before we saw any appreciable numbers and particles, and so. 00:28:41.000 --> 00:28:51.000 You know, the conditions under which you get a January type event versus an April event is something that we need to understand in order to be able to predict these things. 00:28:51.000 --> 00:28:59.000 It also depends on energy. So the number of particles. Now I'm integrating over the whole event and saying how many particles of any given energy? Do I have. 00:28:59.000 --> 00:29:02.000 And this left one is protons. These are oxygen. 00:29:02.000 --> 00:29:05.000 Depending on whether which particles you care about. 00:29:05.000 --> 00:29:21.000 But if you look at protons as a function of energy, you can see these different events have different shapes. And so some of the events are really big at the lower energies, and some of the events are really big at high energies. Well, if you are in a well protected spacecraft. 00:29:21.000 --> 00:29:35.000 You know. Maybe you only care about care about the particles that are way above 100 Mev. So you only care about, say, the February 56, or the January 2,005 event. And you don't really care about something like August 72. 00:29:35.000 --> 00:29:46.000 But if you're some, you've got an instrument, or a person or something that cares about 10 mev particles, then you're more worried about these guys up here and less. So these. So what you care about. 00:29:46.000 --> 00:30:01.000 Makes a difference as to what you need to predict and what kind of events you're worried about. And this is just another way of showing the same kind of thing. You can see that these different events have quite a spread in terms of their size at various different energies. 00:30:01.000 --> 00:30:21.000 Ground level enhancement event I mentioned. This is for this is what we call a neutron monitor. So these neutron monitors that are on the ground when they see an event. Basically, they're seeing the byproducts of the Seps hitting the atmosphere. They get an increase in their neutron monitor rate. And that's what we call a ground level enhancement event. And basically. 00:30:21.000 --> 00:30:31.000 That signifies that you had a really big scp event, because only something that's really big and has lots of very energetic particles is going to create enough. 00:30:31.000 --> 00:30:34.000 Secondary particles for these neutral monitors to pick it up. 00:30:34.000 --> 00:30:40.000 And so when we see this on the ground, then we know something really big happened. 00:30:40.000 --> 00:30:44.000 I'm not gonna go into that. This is basically just comparison of. 00:30:44.000 --> 00:30:48.000 The events that are Gle's and not, and it just says that they're really hard. 00:30:48.000 --> 00:30:53.000 Okay, and it depends on location. So the shock is really big. But it turns out that the. 00:30:53.000 --> 00:30:56.000 How fast the particles get to you! 00:30:56.000 --> 00:31:04.000 Depends. So they're on set time, and how long they stay high depends on where your observer is relative to where that Cme. Went. 00:31:04.000 --> 00:31:07.000 So if you're over here, see me went off. 00:31:07.000 --> 00:31:26.000 What we call to the East. It's gonna be a much more gradual rise, and it's gonna peak later. But if you're on this side. You're gonna see the particles really early, and that has to do with the fact that these field lines curve in a particular direction. And if you're right where it's coming down. You're gonna see it come up and kind of stay high and then come down. Look. 00:31:26.000 --> 00:31:28.000 Now, the problem is, all of this stuff is. 00:31:28.000 --> 00:31:33.000 General, but not necessarily any given event. You can find exceptions to. 00:31:33.000 --> 00:31:58.000 So. Lastly, there's also I'm not even sure this is last. But anyway, composition, so that you can think of this as the size of the event. And this is the iron oxygens composition. So basically, how many iron you have relative to oxygen. And all I want you to take away from here is that this is a 2 to 3 order magnitude spread here in the X direction. So basically, for any given event of a given size, you might have. 00:31:58.000 --> 00:32:02.000 A wide variety in terms of the composition of that particular event. 00:32:02.000 --> 00:32:14.000 Okay. So we have all these solar assets, and we're watching the sun all the time. So you would think we would be able to predict these things because we can see the flare go off. We can see the Cme go off. 00:32:14.000 --> 00:32:22.000 And we have all these spacecraft that are distributed all over the place, and they're measuring all this stuff. So we should be pretty good, right? Because this looks like. 00:32:22.000 --> 00:32:25.000 Quite the armada of stuff. 00:32:25.000 --> 00:32:30.000 The problem is that if you pick any particular thing, so you say. 00:32:30.000 --> 00:32:40.000 Okay, I get a bigger scp event when I have a fast. Cme, okay, so let's do a correlation. This is the speed of the Cme. This is the size of the of the. 00:32:40.000 --> 00:32:47.000 Scp, the peak. This is the peak intensity. This is another one at a different energy. And basically, if I pick a single. 00:32:47.000 --> 00:32:51.000 Speed. There's a 4 order magnitude spread in the size of the scp event. 00:32:51.000 --> 00:32:59.000 And I can guarantee you that anybody that wants a prediction, if you say it's gonna be, I don't know 10 to the minus one plus or minus. 00:32:59.000 --> 00:33:04.000 Factor of a hundred. They're not really happy with that as a prediction to them. That's not really useful. 00:33:04.000 --> 00:33:29.000 And the problem is, you have the same thing for X-ray intensity as you look at the X-ray intensity, there's still a 4 magnitude spread. So it isn't like there's a nice one to one correspondence yet. That's what we have to work with when we're looking at this same thing. I told you it dependent on where you were connected, like where you were on the shock and where it went. Well, pick any longitude here and you again. You'll see that there's don't worry about the colors, but there's a huge spread in how big. 00:33:29.000 --> 00:33:33.000 That scp event is depending on your connection. 00:33:33.000 --> 00:33:38.000 Density of supermarkets, not going to worry about that one. Okay, so this is. 00:33:38.000 --> 00:33:40.000 Our 00:33:40.000 --> 00:33:44.000 What we have to work with basically. And so I like to. 00:33:44.000 --> 00:34:03.000 Point out that this is sort of like, I live here near Los Angeles. Okay? And so this is sort of the scale of what we're talking about. The sun is over here in Hawaii, and I can look through my bill binoculars. I'm standing at the beach in La. I'm looking through my binoculars, and I can see things happening on the sun which I know is gonna create waves. 00:34:03.000 --> 00:34:10.000 That are gonna come up. But all my waveters are right here at the beach. And so basically. 00:34:10.000 --> 00:34:33.000 All this stuff. All the stuff that happens here has to propagate through this enormous ocean, this huge distance, where I have no information. I don't have any boats. I don't have any detectors. I have nothing in this area, and then I have to relate what I see here. The little waves that are following on my feet to what I saw back here. That's what we're trying to do with the prediction. And it's really hard, because a lot of stuff happens in this area. 00:34:33.000 --> 00:34:36.000 Okay, as as I figured, I'm gonna have to. 00:34:36.000 --> 00:34:43.000 Pickup. So one of the things that happens is, there's a lot of energy that's lost due to scattering the particles. If you. 00:34:43.000 --> 00:34:54.000 Inject. This is from a model. If you inject a bunch of particles in this particular energy band by the time they get to one au! They have spread over 2 orders of magnitude because they've lost a lot of energy. 00:34:54.000 --> 00:35:02.000 We have no measurement of how that's happening. We just know it from models that that's what's happened. We also know that when you have these. 00:35:02.000 --> 00:35:07.000 Chroma mass ejections and different structures in the solar wind that go through. 00:35:07.000 --> 00:35:22.000 The interplanetary medium. While you're having an scp event, it can change the intensity of the magnetic field. So these are scp events that were already in progress. The Cme. That accelerated them suddenly passed through the spacecraft, and all the saps dropped. 00:35:22.000 --> 00:35:25.000 And so that's something that you have to worry about. 00:35:25.000 --> 00:35:33.000 Also the magnetic, the structure of the solar wind. That this shot goes into changes the properties of the shock, and that. 00:35:33.000 --> 00:35:40.000 Changes the properties of the Seps that you're getting. So you have to know what the background of the solar wind is that you're going into. 00:35:40.000 --> 00:35:53.000 And all of that also you have to know what you're accelerating. Are you accelerating the solar wind? Are you accelerating the so you're accelerating the super thermal particles here? What are its properties? And how does that affect. 00:35:53.000 --> 00:35:56.000 Your end, product of saps. 00:35:56.000 --> 00:35:58.000 And then most of our models. 00:35:58.000 --> 00:36:03.000 That we have. We have some really great models, many of them here in Michigan. Thank you very much. 00:36:03.000 --> 00:36:10.000 Are driven off. These magnetic field maps we have of the sun. And the problem with these magnetic field maps is, we are measuring. 00:36:10.000 --> 00:36:15.000 Only the magnetic field that we can see basically from a spacecraft near Earth. 00:36:15.000 --> 00:36:38.000 Or on earth, so you can really only see one section of the 360 degrees. But you have to make a 360 degree map of the whole sun to work in your model. And so basically, we say, well, either that structure, those magnetic field active regions don't change as they go around, which we know is not true, or we assume they change in a particular way. 00:36:38.000 --> 00:36:48.000 But the problem is that you can have an active region pop up on the backside of the sun. There's nothing that says the sun only creates active regions. One is facing the earth. It doesn't really care about us. 00:36:48.000 --> 00:36:57.000 And so you're gonna have one show up in the backside of the room backside of the sun, and when that shows up it suddenly throws off your entire map, and it changes your whole model. 00:36:57.000 --> 00:37:01.000 Okay, so this is what we're trying to predict. 00:37:01.000 --> 00:37:05.000 Right, as I said before, but we don't, and really. 00:37:05.000 --> 00:37:23.000 The one thing that Lulu's running a whole center is to just create. Just tell me when there won't be an sc. Event, and you would think that might not be that hard right? But the problem is, you've got to be able to say, Okay, what cm's are not going to drive shocks or not gonna make a shock that creates an scp event. 00:37:23.000 --> 00:37:45.000 What flare is not gonna make a Cme. And really what or what flair is not gonna make a a reconnection that can create an event. And really, what active region is not gonna create any of that stuff. And so it's actually really hard, because what we're trying to do is just use this without all those intermediate pieces, and get the, and predict that. 00:37:45.000 --> 00:37:57.000 And that's really hard, because all of those things all depend on the situations, and we don't have a lot of measurements on all of them, and if you wait until you get all those measurements, then your warning time is much less. 00:37:57.000 --> 00:38:07.000 Okay. So now I'm gonna just talk about some of the things that we want to do. One of one of the great things that was launched recently is Parker solar probe. So I mentioned, there's this huge space right. 00:38:07.000 --> 00:38:32.000 And this is our 1st time really to go really close to the sun. Parker probe. Does these elliptical orbits, where it gets in very, very close to the sun. And it's basically like, now, I can take my measurement, my buoys, and I can take it all the way from where I am in Los Angeles, and I can bring it all the way there right outside of Hawaii. And now I can make measurements. There. 00:38:32.000 --> 00:38:38.000 I know what's going on way back here, and that'll inform me much better what happens in transit. 00:38:38.000 --> 00:38:55.000 At least that's the idea. The other thing we have is solar. Orbiter was also launched. It's also going close to the sun, and it's got a bunch of measurement instruments on it. It doesn't get in as close as Parker solar pro. But it is soon going to do a really cool thing. It's gonna go out of the ecliptic plane. 00:38:55.000 --> 00:39:04.000 Through our Venus flyby it'll get up to, I think, about 25 to 30 degrees out of the ecliptic plane and make some measurements there, which is great, because we haven't had those. 00:39:04.000 --> 00:39:06.000 A long time. Okay. 00:39:06.000 --> 00:39:13.000 So naturally, whenever we go to a new place, we think we're going to get these great answers. And almost always we just get new puzzles. 00:39:13.000 --> 00:39:17.000 And so now I'm just gonna show you a few of the. 00:39:17.000 --> 00:39:22.000 Puzzling observations that we've gotten from Parker probe and 00:39:22.000 --> 00:39:26.000 You can ask lots of questions, but I will not have answers for any of these things. 00:39:26.000 --> 00:39:35.000 So one of the things we've seen is whenever we go close, not whenever it happens a lot. When we go through these peril, we get very close to the sun, so in this case. 00:39:35.000 --> 00:39:41.000 This is solar radii. So for those of you that don't know it's 200 solar radii from the sun to the earth. 00:39:41.000 --> 00:39:44.000 And so this is measurements that are made in. 00:39:44.000 --> 00:39:48.000 Twenties to 15 solar radii. So this is pretty close. 00:39:48.000 --> 00:40:02.000 This is magnetic field. There's lots of stuff going on there that I'm not gonna talk about. But basically these are energetic particles of carbon, oxygen, silicon, and iron. And what happens is when we get close to the sun, we suddenly start seeing these very weird bursts. 00:40:02.000 --> 00:40:15.000 Of energetic particles that are happening. They don't happen all the time. They're fairly low. They would actually more consider these sort of super thermal. They're at the like, the very low energy of energetic particles, but they show up, and they're way more abundant. 00:40:15.000 --> 00:40:33.000 In the heavy like iron and silicon and magnesium. Then we're used to seeing, and we're not quite sure what's happening there. So this is another orbit different kind of plot. But basically this, you've got a few protons that are hanging in here. And then, you see, all these heavy ions are showing up. 00:40:33.000 --> 00:40:41.000 As we go by. So that's 1 question is, where are those coming from? How are they being created? There's some idea that there's. 00:40:41.000 --> 00:40:46.000 This pressure cooker mechanism, which is basically a direct acceleration of electric fields. 00:40:46.000 --> 00:40:54.000 You guys probably know more than that, because I think he borrowed it from a royal physics, which is not something I know. But anyway, 00:40:54.000 --> 00:41:01.000 But it might be a source of heavy, rich seed population, which can then be accelerated by these. 00:41:01.000 --> 00:41:09.000 Cme. German shocks that go through it, so that might be one of the answers as to why we sometimes have compositional signatures. 00:41:09.000 --> 00:41:11.000 In our scp. Events. 00:41:11.000 --> 00:41:14.000 This one was kind of a fun one. 00:41:14.000 --> 00:41:21.000 So we went. This was, we went into about point 3 solar, so it's not nearly as close. But we went through. We saw. 00:41:21.000 --> 00:41:38.000 6 small scp events in particular, we saw 3 events that all happen in rapid succession. So I want you to look at this group here. And so these are 3 different energies. So energy goes. Vertically here, this is time, this way, and the color tells you how big an event it is. 00:41:38.000 --> 00:42:02.000 But these are hydrogen, these 3. And this is helium. And this is electrons which we're not going to worry about. But if you just look at the pattern of the proton saying this middle channel, these 3 events, and you see, the 1st one's really strong, the second one's kinda and the middle ones. The last one's kinda so so helium, basically, you don't see the 1st of the 3rd one. You only see that middle one. It's really strong, so that tells you the composition. 00:42:02.000 --> 00:42:05.000 Of this event these series of events is really different. 00:42:05.000 --> 00:42:09.000 But what's weird is this is the eruption. 00:42:09.000 --> 00:42:17.000 For this is the source region of these 3, and if you watch closely there's a flare, and then there's like this bubble, that kind of shoots out. 00:42:17.000 --> 00:42:26.000 I could be showing you the same movie for each one of these things, and they all look exactly the same. So this active region erupted in almost exactly the same way. 00:42:26.000 --> 00:42:41.000 3 different times. So if I was trying to predict anything from this observations, there's no way. I would tell you that the helium to proton ratio that I'm plotting. Here is a function of energy. It's kind of flash. But the fact is, it changes by a factor of 50. 00:42:41.000 --> 00:42:51.000 From one event to the next. So this is like really different composition from the same active region, with the same solar signatures. And the question is, How do you do that? 00:42:51.000 --> 00:42:54.000 Answer is, I have no idea. Okay. 00:42:54.000 --> 00:42:56.000 But at the same time we saw another event. 00:42:56.000 --> 00:43:04.000 Where we had multiple spacecraft. So this is a plot of where spacecraft were. So this is Parker solar probe. 00:43:04.000 --> 00:43:20.000 The the active region was sort of in this direction. You're looking down on top of the sun. So you see all these magnetic fields. This is stereo a, this is solar orbiter, and this is ace. And all these 4 spacecraft saw this event. This is just time. Profiles or protons and helium. 00:43:20.000 --> 00:43:32.000 This was a fairly fast cme, I had an x 1 flare from the center. It was pretty strong flare. This was a gl event, so it was a strong enough sap event that they detected it in neutron monitors. 00:43:32.000 --> 00:43:35.000 When we went and looked at the composition. 00:43:35.000 --> 00:43:43.000 Now we're looking at pairs of oxygen and iron spectra integrated over those events by Parker, stereo, and Ace. 00:43:43.000 --> 00:43:50.000 And then we shift. We decided to plot it slightly differently, and this time we plotted the oxygen on this side. 00:43:50.000 --> 00:43:56.000 The iron on this side, and then we shifted those scales so that the oxygen and iron on top of each other for stereo. 00:43:56.000 --> 00:44:03.000 So now we can get calculate oxen ratio is. And what was weird is that it's the exact same ratio. 00:44:03.000 --> 00:44:08.000 At ace, and the same ratio at Parker probe, and the shape of the spectra are all the same. 00:44:08.000 --> 00:44:18.000 So that means over the 60 degree longitude spread at different radii. You're getting exactly the same composition, exactly the same spectra. 00:44:18.000 --> 00:44:31.000 For this one event, and to tell you how unusual that is. We did a survey of spacecraft events, using stereo a long time ago that we're all at the same radio distances. If I now took pairs of those from that. 00:44:31.000 --> 00:44:46.000 Study, and looked at those events where you had 2 spacecraft that were within 60 degrees of each other, and I plotted their iron oxygen versus the iron oxygen ratio of the other one. Basically, the equality line is this line. 00:44:46.000 --> 00:44:59.000 The event we just saw. Lands is landing on that line, and nobody else lands on that line. So in a survey of many years. We never saw this kind of uniformity in longitude or radius. 00:44:59.000 --> 00:45:07.000 In terms of composition so really unusual. And so the question is, what are the conditions under which that happened? 00:45:07.000 --> 00:45:10.000 And I don't know. Sorry! That's gonna be repeating phrase. 00:45:10.000 --> 00:45:31.000 So this is one of our most famous events we call this Labor Day event cause. It happened on Labor Day, September 5, th 2022, we Parker was at 15 solar radio, which were really really close. And this is chronal chronograph from C. 2 and C. 3 on Glasgow. I think. Nope stereo sorry. 00:45:31.000 --> 00:45:56.000 And so you can see the eruption. This is the chronograph we have on Parker, which, if you know anything about Parker, it, since it's getting close to the sun, it has to have a sun shield, so everything doesn't melt, which means you can't look at the sun. So the chronograph on Parker actually looks over to the side. And so basically, it's seeing a Cme go by us. And it's seeing it's sort of looking through it horizontally. But this was a huge Cme. That went. 00:45:56.000 --> 00:45:59.000 By, and of course they created an scp event. 00:45:59.000 --> 00:46:03.000 And so one of the things that is normal. 00:46:03.000 --> 00:46:08.000 Is, we see this kind of behavior. So this is again, another plot of. 00:46:08.000 --> 00:46:12.000 The site, so the energy of the particles. These are all protons this time. 00:46:12.000 --> 00:46:25.000 Versus time, and the intensity is the color. And this sort of part to it is the part that we're used to seeing the part, we labeled normal there. So what it means is, basically, if you let all the particles go. 00:46:25.000 --> 00:46:28.000 Different energy, different speeds, particles. 00:46:28.000 --> 00:46:32.000 At the same time the particles that are going fastest get to you first.st 00:46:32.000 --> 00:46:46.000 So that makes sense. You see these particles higher energies first, st and then you see the slower particles and the slower particles, and the slower particles a little bit later. So you get this sort of swish what we call velocity dispersion, so that makes sense. 00:46:46.000 --> 00:46:56.000 What doesn't make sense initially, when we looked at it is why these higher energy particles that should arrive even earlier are actually arriving later. 00:46:56.000 --> 00:47:16.000 So this part of the structure and the part up here. This is a higher energy, that sort of overlaps with this energy. But basically this shape appear in here is not the normal velocity, if you will. So the lower speed particles are arriving before the fast speed particles which. 00:47:16.000 --> 00:47:18.000 Initially, didn't make any sense to us. 00:47:18.000 --> 00:47:23.000 And so then we came up with this brilliant idea that well, I didn't come up with it, but we thought it was a brilliant idea that. 00:47:23.000 --> 00:47:28.000 The shock takes some time to accelerate higher energies. 00:47:28.000 --> 00:47:33.000 Now, so you can accelerate the low energy particles pretty quickly, and they can start going off. 00:47:33.000 --> 00:47:48.000 And you can accelerate the higher energy particles a little later, and they can take off. If you're far enough away from the shock, the higher energy particles are going to overtake the low energy particles and get to your detector first, st which is what we normally see. But if you're really close. 00:47:48.000 --> 00:47:56.000 To the shock. The higher energy particles aren't gonna have enough time to overtake the low energy particles, and so they will actually arrive later. 00:47:56.000 --> 00:48:20.000 So what you're seeing here is a balance between the time it takes to accelerate the particles and the time it takes for the particles to get to you from where they're accelerated. So that all made sense. And we thought this was great cause we're really close for a 15 solar radii. We're really close to the shock. And then, oh, and I should say so. Orbiter saw the same event, and they see this normal velocity, dispersion, high energy particles arrive first.st 00:48:20.000 --> 00:48:27.000 They're at point 7 au! This all makes perfect sense until solar orbiter had the nerve to go. Look at other data. 00:48:27.000 --> 00:48:33.000 And they found time periods where you have the same behavior. But they're out at one. 00:48:33.000 --> 00:48:35.000 So it's really hard to explain. 00:48:35.000 --> 00:48:37.000 How at one AU. 00:48:37.000 --> 00:48:52.000 This whole idea holds together, because presumably these particles are accelerated way by at the shock way back, close to the sun. So these higher energy products should have plenty of time to overtake the low energy particles, and you shouldn't see this behavior. And unfortunately. 00:48:52.000 --> 00:49:01.000 Solar orbiter seen this many times and many times outside of, you know, close to one au point 9 5 9 6. 00:49:01.000 --> 00:49:05.000 And so our brilliant idea is, 00:49:05.000 --> 00:49:09.000 Being a little challenged there. So we haven't really solved that problem yet, either. 00:49:09.000 --> 00:49:14.000 Okay. And I think this is one of the last things I'm gonna talk about, which is to give you some background. 00:49:14.000 --> 00:49:24.000 I said. Shocks accelerate so sometimes that shock is so strong that when it passes the spacecraft. 00:49:24.000 --> 00:49:44.000 It's still accelerating particles. So if you look at this blue trace, for instance, here, this is the saps, or even the black trace. But anyway, these are the saps at half an Meb. And 10 Mev. These are protons. This line here is a shock, this past the spacecraft big shock. There's a smaller one earlier. This is a magnetic field. You can see the shock here. 00:49:44.000 --> 00:49:54.000 And basically these particles peak when the shock comes. That means that those particles are still being accelerated right by that shock. And you're seeing them right now. And so this is actually a pretty common thing to see for a very. 00:49:54.000 --> 00:50:08.000 Strong shock is to see this increase. Sometimes you see it like you can maybe imagine there's a slight increase at the 10 mev particles here doesn't often go up to 10 Mev. But at half an Mv. Or one mev we see it often. 00:50:08.000 --> 00:50:11.000 Okay. And so we saw this at, you know, in November. 00:50:11.000 --> 00:50:16.000 This is our sap event that I was just talking about the Labor Day event, and you can ignore most of this stuff. 00:50:16.000 --> 00:50:22.000 Except it's here's the magnetic field. This is a shock. This 1st line is a shock. 00:50:22.000 --> 00:50:29.000 These are energetic particles that are showing up at different energies. This black line is an 8 Mev. 00:50:29.000 --> 00:50:31.000 All ions Channel. 00:50:31.000 --> 00:50:34.000 And that shot comes and that thing drops. This is. 00:50:34.000 --> 00:50:56.000 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 orders of magnitude on this tiny little plot this thing drops by 4 orders of magnitude, when that when that shot comes by, which is something we've never seen. We seem to drop a little bit. We've never seen it drop orders of magnitude when the shock comes by. If anything, the shock could be accelerating particles, it should peak, and in fact, it starts to drop just before the shock gets there. 00:50:56.000 --> 00:51:05.000 So we don't understand that. That's something that we haven't seen before. I don't. We're in close. We're at 15. I don't know if that's relevant. 00:51:05.000 --> 00:51:24.000 We just happen to get lucky. So that's still something. If any of you have really brilliant ideas, I would love to hear them as to why we have a drop in magnetic field, sorry in the energetic particles when the shock comes by the magnetic cloud which does often create a dip in that in energetic particles doesn't happen until over here. 00:51:24.000 --> 00:51:30.000 So this is not a magnetic cloud that's coming through that's depleting these particles. 00:51:30.000 --> 00:51:55.000 That's also a weird one. Okay, so here's our key. Takeaways. Space weather is important. So is Seps. They're good for science as well as space weather. We have lots of observations, but there's a lot that we can't observe, and we're trying to understand all the processes that are going on in order to predict them. And it's really really hard, because we don't have measurements everywhere that we need to. We don't understand all of the physics. 00:51:55.000 --> 00:52:11.000 And we're trying to put it all together in a way that is useful to people. We have lots of fantastic observations close to the sun from Parker solar probe an solar orbiter course that's given us many new puzzles, and we still have more exciting results are still coming, and of course, that means lots of work. 00:52:11.000 --> 00:52:22.000 So thank you. 00:52:22.000 --> 00:52:27.000 Thank you so much, or do questions. 00:52:27.000 --> 00:52:31.000 Yeah, does shock acceleration. 00:52:31.000 --> 00:52:37.000 Naturally filter articles, so that we change the 00:52:37.000 --> 00:52:39.000 Change. Change the ratios you get. 00:52:39.000 --> 00:52:42.000 Shock acceleration in its. 00:52:42.000 --> 00:52:49.000 True theory. Form should not care what particle it is, and it should not change the particle composition. 00:52:49.000 --> 00:52:53.000 The one exception to that is that. 00:52:53.000 --> 00:53:03.000 The particles. As I said, as they get accelerated. Eventually they get accelerated to high enough energies, or their gyro get big enough that they escape. 00:53:03.000 --> 00:53:21.000 The region of shock, acceleration, and that will happen more readily for things that have higher rigidity. So you might happen more for, say, an iron 14 than it will for a helium plus 2 particle. And the way we often see those has to do with. Sometimes we see broken power laws. 00:53:21.000 --> 00:53:38.000 That say that signify in our spectra will get a broken power law, and where it breaks, we think is governed by the rigidity of the particles. And so that's but in terms of just accelerating like. If it has all the time in the world, and it can accelerate it shouldn't. 00:53:38.000 --> 00:53:44.000 Differentiate between the different particle species. 00:53:44.000 --> 00:53:49.000 Yes, I guess in terms of the end goal being predicting some key events. 00:53:49.000 --> 00:53:51.000 What would be a realistic. 00:53:51.000 --> 00:54:10.000 Timeline, you know, hours of warning weeks, or is this still Survey chapter? We grappled with it. So so the answer is, it really depends on what you want to predict. You know what aspect you're worried about and what you want to do right? So. 00:54:10.000 --> 00:54:13.000 Astronauts that are on an Eva. They need. 00:54:13.000 --> 00:54:24.000 Until you may remember better than I do. But you know something like half an hour, 45 min. They can get to where they need to be. You know, they're usually not so far away that they can get into protected areas. So they don't need days. 00:54:24.000 --> 00:54:39.000 But if you're going to, and certain protections you can do for transmission lines, you can change the voltage and do those kind of things they can do those relatively quickly. But all of these things are. 00:54:39.000 --> 00:54:49.000 They don't like to do them. You can change an airlines trajectory right? You can change its flight paths. But again, they don't want to do that. And. 00:54:49.000 --> 00:54:53.000 You can only change it so much, so fast and so. 00:54:53.000 --> 00:54:56.000 It's not just how much lead time each one of these individual. 00:54:56.000 --> 00:55:08.000 Consumers needs. But they also want a confidence level like, how sure are you that this is really gonna have? So there's a balance there. It's sort of like. Well, I can tell you that you're gonna get hit. 00:55:08.000 --> 00:55:21.000 By an scp or a shock is gonna hit the earth. So here's a good. You're gonna the a big shock is gonna hit the Earth magnetosphere and distort. You're gonna get a geomagnetic storm, and I can tell you with fairly good certainty. 00:55:21.000 --> 00:55:24.000 About half an hour ahead of time. 00:55:24.000 --> 00:55:37.000 Because I've got a spacecraft that is just a million miles upstream, and it just hit that spacecraft. That's not a lot of warning, right. But if I could tell you maybe 3 days in advance, because I saw a C in the go off. But. 00:55:37.000 --> 00:55:42.000 I can't really tell you how big a an effect it is because one of the things that. 00:55:42.000 --> 00:55:47.000 Determines the geomagnetic effectiveness is the orientation, the magnetic field. 00:55:47.000 --> 00:56:07.000 Which you can measure that spacecraft, but you can't determine from those images. So you don't know whether the things coming towards you has what we call a busy or positive, which makes a big difference in terms of how big the geom is, so I can tell you. It'll hit you, I can tell you, maybe soon, but I can't really tell you with great ins great certainty. 00:56:07.000 --> 00:56:12.000 How bad it's gonna be. And so if somebody just wants to know if something's gonna happen. 00:56:12.000 --> 00:56:15.000 That's fine. But if they really want to know. 00:56:15.000 --> 00:56:17.000 Should I? Or shouldn't I launch. 00:56:17.000 --> 00:56:31.000 You know, another spacecraft on my, you know my falcon 9, and I, you know this is the only chance we have to launch for the next 2 years, or something. They really want to be sure, before they cancel that so. 00:56:31.000 --> 00:56:39.000 It's not just lead time. It's also accuracy. And like I said, it depends on whether you're talking aviation people or you're talking of transmission people, or you're talking about. 00:56:39.000 --> 00:56:47.000 You know, spacecraft people, you know, things like that. So kind of depends, which gives you. 00:56:47.000 --> 00:56:50.000 Few days. If you can predict. 00:56:50.000 --> 00:56:52.000 Strength of it after seeing it. 00:56:52.000 --> 00:57:09.000 Yeah, so they can get the speed of the Cme. So they can get the speed of the Cme. The irony, of course, and they can get that pretty quickly, because that those data come down in real time. So they're only like, well, depending on the instrument. Some have faster cadences than others, but on the best cases you get them within. 00:57:09.000 --> 00:57:11.000 Minutes of things happening. Right? 00:57:11.000 --> 00:57:17.000 You can calculate the Cme. The speed of the Cme. The problem is that the ones you care about are heading your way. 00:57:17.000 --> 00:57:21.000 And it's really hard to tell the speed of something that's heading at you. 00:57:21.000 --> 00:57:33.000 It's a lot easier to tell the speed of something that's going that way. Well, the ones that are going that way we don't care about as much right. And so now I can tell you that they're seeing me. That's probably coming towards us. 00:57:33.000 --> 00:57:35.000 But I'm not really sure about the speed. 00:57:35.000 --> 00:57:42.000 So that's another uncertainty, and that makes a big difference in terms of how quickly it reaches you. Of course, right? And then. 00:57:42.000 --> 00:58:06.000 These are more fun problem is, it could be going that way which we really don't care about. So it could be a backside Cme, and they now have ways where they try. Say, oh, that's backside, or that's front side. That's why, having spacecraft and observations off of the Sun Earth line help a lot. So if you're over here, you can now see whether it's going backward to forwards, and you can measure it better. So we have some of those assets. 00:58:06.000 --> 00:58:11.000 But they're not like permanently in place like stereo keeps moving around and stuff. So 00:58:11.000 --> 00:58:14.000 Yeah, kind of things. 00:58:14.000 --> 00:58:16.000 Please. 00:58:16.000 --> 00:58:24.000 Yeah. So my question is that looking at the past 20 years of space, has anything. 00:58:24.000 --> 00:58:28.000 Changed in the core of the design of. 00:58:28.000 --> 00:58:32.000 Based on the knowledge it's acquired. So if you say that. 00:58:32.000 --> 00:58:39.000 You can predict these events better. For example, do you anticipate a change in. 00:58:39.000 --> 00:58:47.000 You can get rid of certain protection levels. Right? So there's sort of 2 answers that. So one is 00:58:47.000 --> 00:58:58.000 Has the instrument changed? Has the instrumentation change to be able to predict things better? Right? That's 1 question. And then the other question is, how do I protect my instrument? 00:58:58.000 --> 00:59:09.000 Better. And so, yeah, there's been, you know, there's been some evolution of you know. You know how much radiation you know you have to worry about under what conditions. And so you can get. 00:59:09.000 --> 00:59:15.000 Certain parts that are more radiation hard and things like that. And but you don't want to overdesign it. 00:59:15.000 --> 00:59:19.000 So there are now all kinds of 00:59:19.000 --> 00:59:40.000 Cost estimates that are done, based on how much radiation that makes like a big difference. Like, if you're like your robo clipper, that's gonna be launching soon. They really needed to figure out how much radiation are they gonna have, and how bad is it gonna be? And how long do they have to survive it because they're kind of going in and out and all that stuff. And so the more stuff we learn about this and more we characterize them. 00:59:40.000 --> 00:59:49.000 The better. They can target their designs in terms of not over engineering them under engineering them, and then. 00:59:49.000 --> 00:59:56.000 In terms of predictive capability. There has been an evolution in terms of Oh, well, turns out. 00:59:56.000 --> 01:00:06.000 You know the chronographs that I was showing you. Those are all science. They're not designed to do operation, but it turns out that swipsy, the space weather prediction center that's actually putting out. 01:00:06.000 --> 01:00:30.000 You know, predictions of things, they said, well, turns out those chronographs are really important. So we better have an operational. So on the next their next iteration. They're calling it the space weather. Follow on. That's going to be launched next year. They're putting a chronograph on there, and I think they actually put a chronograph on the latest goes back chronographs. It's also on the latest goes. So they suddenly said, we need to be in charge of a chronograph, and it needs to have a certain cadence. 01:00:30.000 --> 01:00:38.000 And it needs to have a certain reliability that it'll send data down at such and such. So it's actually happening on both sides, I would say, in terms of the evolution. 01:00:38.000 --> 01:00:42.000 So appreciate hearing on the chat. 01:00:42.000 --> 01:00:44.000 Chat. 01:00:44.000 --> 01:00:52.000 Okay, this can't be a hard question. 01:00:52.000 --> 01:00:59.000 How solid you say, and abusive acceleration theory is for explaining gradual events. Are there any major. 01:00:59.000 --> 01:01:06.000 Polls think that it can't explain? Or is it just get more solid with more and more data. So. 01:01:06.000 --> 01:01:13.000 I think I think we're pretty sure that diffusive shock acceleration is what's happening at those shocks. 01:01:13.000 --> 01:01:18.000 The problem is that that's not all you need to know. Right? The problem, the the. 01:01:18.000 --> 01:01:32.000 The difficulty in using that. To predict and characterize the seps that come out is, you need to know all these other things. What is it accelerating? What are the what is the seed population that it's accelerating? And I feel like that's not really well pinned down. 01:01:32.000 --> 01:01:36.000 What are the conditions around the shock? 01:01:36.000 --> 01:01:40.000 Right. We you know as well as anybody that shocks are not Planar. 01:01:40.000 --> 01:01:45.000 Right. So even one cme shock is not. We always treat it as having. 01:01:45.000 --> 01:01:52.000 And the angle. We talked about the angle of the shock relative to the ambient upstream magnetic field. But we know that that's not. 01:01:52.000 --> 01:02:01.000 The angle all over the shock, and we know that that angle makes a difference in terms of the acceleration of the particles, and so we don't have a measure of what that. 01:02:01.000 --> 01:02:03.000 Angle is, and how it evolves. 01:02:03.000 --> 01:02:07.000 And we don't really know. And we have these models. But we don't really know. 01:02:07.000 --> 01:02:18.000 The shock itself in terms of its speed. And how fast it's slowing down, or you know, and that kind of thing. And it's weakening, and all those and all of those things play into the Seps. So. 01:02:18.000 --> 01:02:21.000 I think the theory be. You know the mechanism. 01:02:21.000 --> 01:02:25.000 Is correct, and I think everybody's pretty happy with that. 01:02:25.000 --> 01:02:31.000 It's the conditions that it's happening under that we don't know enough about to use it. 01:02:31.000 --> 01:02:54.000 As a predictive capability, I think, is the wrong. I don't think you need to learn any new physics. I think you just need to have more measurements or more information or something. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But you gotta base them on something. Right now, we're just kind of guessing as to what you know the densities are and and super thermals and all that stuff. So yeah. 01:02:54.000 --> 01:02:57.000 And we have one question from the chat. 01:02:57.000 --> 01:03:02.000 Do ship events affect the human body. I'm going to interpret that. 01:03:02.000 --> 01:03:04.000 On earth as opposed to in space. 01:03:04.000 --> 01:03:11.000 Generally. No, yeah. This the short answer, because well, unless you are. 01:03:11.000 --> 01:03:33.000 Living in the middle of Antarctica, you know, and you know you're you're at the Pole, where there's not very much magnetic. You are not going. Those energetic particles are not going to reach you in any substantial amounts. So and their bride products are, you know that we measure with neutron monitors not going to cause any real problems at any significant intensity. So most of us live. 01:03:33.000 --> 01:03:37.000 In a band that is well protected by the magnetic field. 01:03:37.000 --> 01:03:51.000 Even when there's a big human. There's a few people that probably aren't. But you know they watch the auroras and have great. 01:03:51.000 --> 01:03:58.000 Event, and I've been interested to do that. 01:03:58.000 --> 01:04:17.000 Always been a great pleasure to give you the mixing mug. All right. The most sought after, so I could sell it on ebay is what you're saying. No, this is perfect. It's a big mug, because I drink a lot of tea. That's great. Awesome. Thank you very much. Yeah, thank you. 01:04:17.000 --> 01:04:30.000 We need a photo called the Mipsy Mug, so that everybody can see it. 01:04:30.000 --> 01:04:47.000 That's a lot of food is I don't like.